Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Oct 13?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 61° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 57° against the MSP observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 17° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 73° | — | — | 55° | — | — | 55–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 64° | 73° | 61° | — | 68° | — | — | 61–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 49° | 43° | 72° | — | 64° | — | — | 43–72° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 55° | 60° | 63° | — | 71° | — | — | 55–71° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 48° | 46° | 53° | — | 66° | — | — | 46–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 54° | 51° | — | 74° | — | — | 51–74° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 67° | 38° | 73° | 60° | 41° | — | — | 38–73° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 60° | 51° | 77° | 77° | 70° | — | — | 51–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 49° | 52° | 69° | 75° | 58° | — | — | 49–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 50° | 49° | 53° | 63° | 57° | 56° | 50° | 49–63° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 62° | 61° | 68° | 68° | 58° | 55° | 55–68° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 59° | 59° | 61° | 64° | 56° | 59° | 55° | 55–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 59° | 58° | 62° | 66° | 61° | 62° | 62° | 58–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 58° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 69° | 62° | 63° | 58–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 57° | 74° | 65° | 66° | 62° | 63° | 57–74° |
| actual | 57° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.