Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Oct 25?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 46° to 54°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 53°. The day verified at 55° against the MSP observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 67° | — | — | 52° | — | — | 52–67° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 46° | 48° | 50° | — | 54° | — | — | 46–54° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 47° | 51° | — | 51° | — | — | 47–51° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 53° | 54° | 60° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–60° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 52° | 57° | 60° | — | 53° | — | — | 52–60° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 58° | 71° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 55° | 46° | 54° | 64° | 54° | — | — | 46–64° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 62° | 66° | 68° | 67° | 50° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 58° | 59° | 66° | 70° | 52° | — | — | 52–70° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 56° | 62° | 70° | 58° | 64° | 70° | 60° | 56–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 55° | 55° | 55° | 62° | 58° | 64° | 59° | 55–64° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 53° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 63° | 53° | 54° | 53–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 54° | 53° | 59° | 55° | 60° | 54° | 56° | 53–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 53° | 53° | 53° | 54° | 60° | 52° | 57° | 52–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 53° | 53° | 58° | 52° | 56° | 50° | 58° | 50–58° |
| actual | 55° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.