Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Aug 7?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
12 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 81° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 81° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.15 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-26 | 87° | 81° | 97° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–97° |
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 93° | 82° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 74° | 97° | — | 95° | — | — | 74–97° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 78° | 87° | 85° | 94° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 82° | 94° | 80° | 78° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 83° | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 80° | 87° | 81° | 94° | 90° | 87° | 80–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 87° | 91° | 90° | 98° | 90° | 90° | 85–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 88° | 83–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 95° | 82° | 82° | 80–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 81° | 85° | 83° | 94° | 84° | 81° | 81–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 81° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 80° | 77° | 77–86° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.