Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Aug 27?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
5 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 76° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the MSP observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 76° | 82° | 76° | 84° | 78° | 80° | 76–84° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 76° | 81° | 76° | 85° | 82° | 80° | 76–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 76° | 82° | 79° | 88° | 82° | 78° | 76–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 77° | 83° | 79° | 88° | 81° | 80° | 77–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 81° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 88° | 79° | 81° | 79–88° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.