Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Aug 26?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
4 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 77° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 82° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.2°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 77° | 84° | 77° | 84° | 80° | 81° | 77–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 89° | 80° | 79° | 78–89° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 88° | 81° | 78° | 78–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 80° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 88° | 80° | 81° | 79–88° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.