Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Aug 9?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 77° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 85° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.49 in of precipitation — rain.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-26 | 77° | 86° | 81° | — | 91° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 13d · 2026-07-27 | 79° | 80° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 12d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 78° | 88° | — | 98° | — | — | 78–98° |
| 11d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 73° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 10d · 2026-07-30 | 82° | 74° | 96° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–96° |
| 9d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 84° | — | — | 82–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 77° | 82° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-02 | 81° | 80° | 85° | 75° | 102° | — | — | 75–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 82° | 88° | 78° | 92° | 85° | 86° | 78–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 79° | 90° | 83° | 92° | 87° | 88° | 79–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 82° | 91° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 88° | 82–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 85° | 85–89° |
| 2d · 2026-08-07 | 82° | 83° | 89° | 79° | 88° | 80° | 78° | 78–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 86° | 82° | 89° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 82–89° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.