Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Sep 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 72° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 87° against the MSP observations — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 77° | 72° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 82° | 76° | 73° | — | 80° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 87° | 74° | — | 98° | — | — | 74–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 80° | 78° | 79° | — | 86° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 79° | 88° | 72° | 96° | — | — | 72–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 75° | 91° | 75° | 107° | — | — | 75–107° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 85° | 93° | 86° | 101° | — | — | 82–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 78° | 88° | 92° | 98° | 91° | 91° | 78–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 95° | 92° | 93° | 85–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 83° | 89° | 88° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 80–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 86° | 90° | 95° | 100° | 88° | 89° | 84–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 89° | 84° | 89° | 96° | 92° | 93° | 84–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 85° | 87° | 92° | 96° | 94° | 91° | 83–96° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.