Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Sep 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 22° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 31° against the MSP observations — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 25° | 22° | 28° | — | 31° | — | — | 22–31° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 28° | 24° | 23° | — | 27° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 26° | 31° | 24° | — | 37° | — | — | 24–37° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 27° | 26° | 26° | — | 30° | — | — | 26–30° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 25° | 26° | 31° | 22° | 36° | — | — | 22–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 30° | 24° | 33° | 24° | 42° | — | — | 24–42° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 28° | 29° | 34° | 30° | 38° | — | — | 28–38° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 31° | 25° | 31° | 33° | 37° | 33° | 33° | 25–37° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 30° | 29° | 31° | 32° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 29–35° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 27° | 29° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 33° | 33° | 27–33° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 29° | 30° | 32° | 35° | 38° | 31° | 32° | 29–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 29° | 32° | 29° | 32° | 36° | 34° | 34° | 29–36° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 28° | 30° | 30° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 33° | 28–35° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.