Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Sep 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
12 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 71° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 87° against the MSP observations — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 71° | 73° | 76° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 78° | 85° | — | 83° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 92° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 78° | 86° | — | 95° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 81° | 80° | 75° | 90° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 102° | — | — | 81–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 81° | 86° | 88° | 84° | 97° | 89° | — | 81–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 73° | 92° | 94° | 92° | 93° | 91° | 73–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 82° | 87° | 87° | 97° | 88° | 84° | 82–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 90° | 97° | 90° | 91° | 86–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 93° | 85–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 86° | 88° | 92° | 98° | 89° | 93° | 83–98° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 86° | 88° | 94° | 94° | 92° | 85° | 84–94° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.