Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Sep 3?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
12 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 75° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 90° against the MSP observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 75° | 77° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 84° | 72° | 67° | — | 84° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 87° | 78° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 75° | 77° | 74° | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 76° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 103° | — | — | 76–103° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 84° | 82° | 83° | 104° | — | — | 82–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 81° | 89° | 81° | 96° | 92° | 84° | 81–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 78° | 88° | 87° | 90° | 81° | 81° | 78–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 86° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 85° | 86° | 83–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 84° | 84° | 90° | 83° | 92° | 90° | 80° | 80–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 97° | 90° | 87° | 83–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 88° | 87° | 84° | 96° | 95° | 85° | 84–96° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.