Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Sep 13?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 56° to 66°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 72° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 94° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 94–96° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 64° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 64–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 61° | 56° | 66° | — | 65° | — | — | 56–66° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 73° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 69° | 65° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 65–95° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 83° | 81° | — | 89° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 62° | 83° | — | 71° | — | — | 62–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 85° | 63° | 68° | 68° | — | — | 63–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 69° | 81° | 67° | 72° | 65° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 68° | 66° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 68° | — | 64–68° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 67° | 67° | 62° | 64° | 66° | 64° | 69° | 62–69° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 76° | 68° | 76° | 67–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 68° | 68° | 68° | 67° | 62° | 69° | 62–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 69° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 68° | 63° | 66° | 63–69° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 70° | 67° | 73° | 73° | 72° | 70° | 70° | 67–73° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 69° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 69–74° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.