Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Sep 5?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 69° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 87° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 77° | 69° | 84° | — | 73° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 77° | 78° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 78° | 79° | 74° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 74° | 78° | 70° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 73° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 73–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 73° | 85° | 75° | 104° | — | — | 73–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 84° | 88° | 88° | 88° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 76° | 90° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 90° | 91° | 87° | 98° | 87° | 95° | 83–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 84° | 87° | 91° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 82–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 84° | 89° | 90° | 100° | 89° | 94° | 82–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 97° | 88° | 94° | 81–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 77° | 80° | 85° | 87° | 94° | 84° | 84° | 77–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 80° | 83° | 88° | 92° | 88° | 81° | 80–92° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.