Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Sep 5?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 68° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 87° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 71° | 68° | 79° | — | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 71° | 75° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 73° | 71° | — | 91° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 78° | 82° | 83° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 89° | 84° | — | 95° | — | — | 81–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 93° | 85° | 86° | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 84° | 86° | 88° | 86° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 76° | 80° | 96° | 84° | 89° | — | 76–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 80° | 87° | 81° | 89° | 82° | 94° | 80–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 101° | 90° | 96° | 83–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 82° | 84° | 91° | 100° | 88° | 90° | 82–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 82° | 85° | 92° | 96° | 89° | 92° | 79–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 80° | 83° | 88° | 92° | 88° | 81° | 80–92° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 82° | 86° | 88° | 91° | 84° | 86° | 79–91° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.