Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Sep 5?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 20° to 28°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 31° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 22° | 20° | 26° | — | 28° | — | — | 20–28° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 28° | 22° | 24° | — | 31° | — | — | 22–31° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 29° | 23° | 22° | — | 33° | — | — | 22–33° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 26° | 28° | 28° | — | 30° | — | — | 26–30° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 27° | 31° | 29° | — | 35° | — | — | 27–35° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 31° | 34° | 30° | 30° | 37° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 27° | 29° | 30° | 31° | 30° | — | — | 27–31° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 29° | 24° | 27° | 35° | 29° | 32° | — | 24–35° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 27° | 26° | 30° | 27° | 32° | 28° | 35° | 26–35° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 29° | 31° | 31° | 32° | 38° | 32° | 36° | 29–38° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 28° | 28° | 29° | 33° | 38° | 31° | 32° | 28–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 26° | 28° | 29° | 33° | 35° | 32° | 33° | 26–35° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 27° | 26° | 28° | 31° | 33° | 31° | 27° | 26–33° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 26° | 28° | 30° | 31° | 33° | 29° | 30° | 26–33° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.