Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Sep 22?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 18° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 17°. The day verified at 19° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 30° | — | — | 21° | — | — | 21–30° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 24° | 22° | 18° | — | 23° | — | — | 18–24° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 24° | 24° | 15° | — | 27° | — | — | 15–27° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 19° | 17° | 17° | — | 26° | — | — | 17–26° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 25° | 22° | 16° | — | 24° | — | — | 16–25° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 20° | 21° | 22° | — | 25° | — | — | 20–25° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 21° | 14° | 23° | 22° | 14° | — | — | 14–23° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 19° | 18° | 20° | 20° | 20° | — | — | 18–20° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 16° | 19° | 18° | 14° | 17° | — | — | 14–19° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 16° | 18° | 17° | 16° | 17° | 19° | 21° | 16–21° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 16° | 17° | 16° | 19° | 18° | 17° | 20° | 16–20° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 17° | 18° | 16° | 18° | 20° | 18° | 19° | 16–20° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 16° | 17° | 16° | 18° | 19° | 16° | 18° | 16–19° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 16° | 17° | 16° | 19° | 19° | 15° | 18° | 15–19° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 16° | 17° | 16° | 20° | 19° | 16° | 17° | 16–20° |
| actual | 19° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.