Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Jul 30?

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 31° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-27	31°	32°	35°	31°	36°	33°	34°	31–36°
2d · 2026-07-28	31°	31°	35°	31°	32°	31°	34°	31–35°
1d · 2026-07-29	31°	30°	34°	34°	35°	32°	31°	30–35°
0d · 2026-07-30	30°	31°	33°	33°	32°	32°	31°	30–33°
actual								32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.