Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Sep 1?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
10 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 21° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 32° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 26° | 23° | 21° | — | 29° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 29° | 25° | 23° | 24° | 23° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 30° | 25° | 28° | 25° | 29° | — | — | 25–30° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 30° | 26° | 29° | 26° | 35° | — | — | 26–35° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 28° | 26° | 30° | 27° | 34° | 27° | 32° | 26–34° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 29° | 26° | 31° | 32° | 35° | 30° | 32° | 26–35° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 30° | 27° | 31° | 31° | 34° | 28° | 31° | 27–34° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 31° | 31° | 30° | 27° | 27–31° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 34° | 32° | 31° | 29–34° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 31° | 31° | 31° | 34° | 33° | 31° | 30° | 30–34° |
| actual | 32° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.