Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Sep 9?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 19° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 27° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 30° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 26–30° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 29° | 19° | 24° | — | 28° | — | — | 19–29° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 33° | 27° | 25° | — | 33° | — | — | 25–33° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 30° | 30° | 31° | — | 38° | — | — | 30–38° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 22° | 32° | 24° | — | 28° | — | — | 22–32° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 26° | 28° | 24° | — | 33° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 25° | 25° | 24° | 28° | 32° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 29° | 20° | 25° | 29° | 26° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 29° | 21° | 23° | 32° | 27° | — | — | 21–32° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 25° | 27° | 28° | 32° | 32° | 29° | 29° | 25–32° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 23° | 21° | 24° | 30° | 26° | 27° | 28° | 21–30° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 22° | 22° | 24° | 22° | 30° | 23° | 28° | 22–30° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 23° | 23° | 24° | 23° | 26° | 23° | 24° | 23–26° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 26° | 24° | 25° | 24° | 29° | 25° | 26° | 24–29° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 26° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 29° | 26° | 26° | 25–29° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.