Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Sep 9?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 65° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 76° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–76° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 72° | 76° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 70° | 65° | 68° | — | 76° | — | — | 65–76° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 74° | 81° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 82° | 84° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 84° | 73° | — | 89° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 82° | 70° | — | 86° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 70° | 85° | 90° | 64° | — | — | 64–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 83° | 72° | 80° | 82° | 72° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 82° | 84° | 92° | 88° | 77° | — | 77–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 71° | 75° | 85° | 78° | 80° | 83° | 71–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 74° | 79° | 71° | 83° | 78° | 78° | 71–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 73° | 72° | 76° | 72° | 83° | 74° | 77° | 72–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 77° | 73° | 75° | 74° | 83° | 76° | 79° | 73–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 79° | 75° | 78° | 80° | 84° | 79° | 80° | 75–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 79° | 77° | 81° | 83° | 78° | 78° | 77–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.