The Spread

Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Aug 5?

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 27° to 29°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 28° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°.

9 days out the models said 27–29; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.4°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-27 29° 27° 28° — 27° — — 27–29°
8d · 2026-07-28 27° 27° 25° 25° 34° — — 25–34°
7d · 2026-07-29 28° 21° 27° 25° 32° — — 21–32°
6d · 2026-07-30 25° 23° 27° 20° 26° 26° — 20–27°
5d · 2026-07-31 25° 23° 27° 24° 30° 24° 26° 23–30°
4d · 2026-08-01 25° 25° 27° 24° 28° 26° 25° 24–28°
3d · 2026-08-02 25° 25° 27° 25° 31° 28° 26° 25–31°
2d · 2026-08-03 26° 25° 27° 26° 30° 27° 25° 25–30°
1d · 2026-08-04 27° 25° 28° 28° 27° 26° 27° 25–28°
0d · 2026-08-05 27° 27° 27° 28° 28° 26° 27° 26–28°
actual 28°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.