Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Aug 29?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
7 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 19° to 28°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 28° against the MSP observations, with 6.6 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 23° | 25° | 23° | 19° | 28° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 28° | 28° | 28° | 21° | 30° | 28° | 24° | 21–30° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 25° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 32° | 29° | 27° | 25–32° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 28° | 29° | 29° | 28° | 34° | 29° | 25° | 25–34° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 26° | 28° | 24° | 28° | 35° | 27° | 27° | 24–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 24° | 29° | 27° | 25° | 32° | 25° | 27° | 24–32° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 25° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 32° | 25° | 27° | 25–32° |
| actual | 28° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.