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Which weather model is most accurate in Washington?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Washington at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DCA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

No model shows a large standing warm or cool bias in this window.

Washington's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 0.8° (-0.1°) 1.2° (+0.2°) 3.0° (-0.8°) 29
DWD ICON 0.9° (-0.1°) 1.3° (+0.0°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.0° (-0.2°) 1.4° (-0.6°) 2.8° (-0.4°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.1° (+0.1°) 1.4° (-0.1°) — 29
NOAA GFS 1.3° (+0.3°) 1.7° (+0.7°) 3.3° (-0.1°) 29
GEM (Canada) 1.3° (+0.0°) 1.7° (-0.3°) 3.1° (-0.6°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.5° (+0.1°) 1.2° (-0.1°) 3.5° (-1.1°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Washington point is the Reagan National station (DCA), 5.9 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Reagan National (DCA) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 11–28; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 15–28; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 17–28; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 24. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 14–19; it hit 19. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 15–24; it hit 22. AIFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 14–20; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 20–24; it hit 22. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 18–24; it hit 19. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 23. GFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 20–29; it hit 18. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 17–24; it hit 19. GFS led (off 1.6°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 22–26; it hit 30. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 20–25; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.5°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 17–28; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 21–34; it hit 23. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 20–26; it hit 19. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 20. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.8°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 19. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 19–29; it hit 19. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 17–24; it hit 18. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 22–27; it hit 23. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 19–25; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 21–33; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 23–35; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C).
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 26–35; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 23–36; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 21–34; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.9°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 27–36; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 28–37; it hit 30. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 27–28; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 1.0°C); ECMWF ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 14 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 6°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.8°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 28–31; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 28–31; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 27–37; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 1.6°C); GEM ran 6°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 18–30; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 31–33; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 2.1°C); GEM ran 7°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 23–36; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 28. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 5°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 27–29; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.

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