The Spread

Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Sep 14?

Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 25° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 27° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 — 27° — — 28° — — 27–28°
14d · 2026-08-31 31° 30° — — 29° — — 29–31°
13d · 2026-09-01 29° 25° 33° — 26° — — 25–33°
12d · 2026-09-02 35° 27° 31° — 35° — — 27–35°
11d · 2026-09-03 30° 33° 21° — 37° — — 21–37°
10d · 2026-09-04 31° 21° 31° — 26° — — 21–31°
9d · 2026-09-05 25° 32° 27° — 37° — — 25–37°
8d · 2026-09-06 28° 31° 36° 27° 37° — — 27–37°
7d · 2026-09-07 29° 33° 29° 31° 33° — — 29–33°
6d · 2026-09-08 25° 24° 32° 21° 34° 25° — 21–34°
5d · 2026-09-09 25° 27° 31° 28° 33° 33° 34° 25–34°
4d · 2026-09-10 26° 27° 28° 25° 34° 27° 28° 25–34°
3d · 2026-09-11 27° 27° 27° 26° 26° 26° 29° 26–29°
2d · 2026-09-12 28° 26° 27° 26° 27° 25° 28° 25–28°
1d · 2026-09-13 27° 26° 26° 27° 27° 25° 28° 25–28°
0d · 2026-09-14 28° 27° 27° 26° 27° 26° 28° 26–28°
actual 27°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.