Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Sep 14?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 78° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 80° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 80–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 86° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 78° | 91° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 80° | 87° | — | 95° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 85° | 92° | 69° | — | 98° | — | — | 69–98° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 71° | 88° | — | 78° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 77° | 89° | 81° | — | 98° | — | — | 77–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 82° | 88° | 97° | 80° | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 91° | 84° | 88° | 92° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 77° | 76° | 89° | 70° | 94° | 76° | — | 70–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 80° | 87° | 83° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 77–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 77° | 92° | 81° | 83° | 77–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 80° | 81° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 84° | 78–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 82° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 76° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 78–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 78–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.