Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Aug 24?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
5 days out, 7 models put Washington's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 26° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 29° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. ICON ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-19 | 28° | 26° | 28° | 27° | 29° | 29° | 29° | 26–29° |
| 4d · 2026-08-20 | 28° | 27° | 28° | 25° | 30° | 27° | 28° | 25–30° |
| 3d · 2026-08-21 | 28° | 27° | 27° | 28° | 29° | 28° | 29° | 27–29° |
| 2d · 2026-08-22 | 29° | 28° | 27° | 28° | 30° | 28° | 28° | 27–30° |
| 1d · 2026-08-23 | 28° | 29° | 28° | 28° | 31° | 28° | 28° | 28–31° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.