The Spread

Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Sep 4?

Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 24° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 32° against the DCA observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 4° hot.

13 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 4°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-20 — 25° — — 28° — — 25–28°
14d · 2026-08-21 23° 31° — — 34° — — 23–34°
13d · 2026-08-22 31° 24° 30° — 28° — — 24–31°
12d · 2026-08-23 30° 24° 27° — 35° — — 24–35°
11d · 2026-08-24 29° 30° 33° — 19° — — 19–33°
10d · 2026-08-25 32° 31° 41° — 28° — — 28–41°
9d · 2026-08-26 32° 33° 36° — 36° — — 32–36°
8d · 2026-08-27 30° 31° 32° 31° 41° — — 30–41°
7d · 2026-08-28 30° 28° 31° 31° 38° — — 28–38°
6d · 2026-08-29 30° 32° 36° 33° 35° 37° — 30–37°
5d · 2026-08-30 34° 34° 37° 33° 31° 36° 36° 31–37°
4d · 2026-08-31 34° 33° 32° 33° 38° 31° 33° 31–38°
3d · 2026-09-01 32° 33° 35° 32° 37° 33° 33° 32–37°
2d · 2026-09-02 33° 34° 35° 34° 36° 34° 33° 33–36°
1d · 2026-09-03 33° 34° 35° 32° 38° 35° 34° 32–38°
0d · 2026-09-04 33° 34° 33° 32° 36° 33° 35° 32–36°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.