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Which weather model is most accurate in Washington?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Washington at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DCA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

No model shows a large standing warm or cool bias in this window.

Washington's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.4° (-0.2°) 2.1° (+0.3°) 5.4° (-1.4°) 29
DWD ICON 1.7° (-0.1°) 2.4° (+0.0°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.9° (-0.4°) 2.6° (-1.1°) 5.0° (-0.7°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.9° (+0.2°) 2.5° (-0.2°) — 29
NOAA GFS 2.4° (+0.6°) 3.0° (+1.3°) 5.9° (-0.1°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.4° (+0.1°) 3.1° (-0.5°) 5.7° (-1.0°) 29
ECMWF IFS 2.6° (+0.1°) 2.2° (-0.2°) 6.4° (-1.9°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Washington point is the Reagan National station (DCA), 3.7 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Reagan National (DCA) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 51–82; it hit 80. AIFS led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 5°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 59–83; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 66–73; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 62–82; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 66–74; it hit 76. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 57–66; it hit 67. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 58–76; it hit 72. AIFS led (off 0.1°F).
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 64–72; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 57–68; it hit 81. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 68–74; it hit 72. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 65–74; it hit 66. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 63–78; it hit 74. GFS led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 68–84; it hit 65. ICON led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 62–75; it hit 67. GFS led (off 2.8°F); ECMWF ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 72–79; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 68–76; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.9°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 63–83; it hit 80. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 70–94; it hit 74. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 76–85; it hit 71. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 69–80; it hit 66. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 71–82; it hit 68. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 71–81; it hit 76. GFS led (off 1.4°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 62–77; it hit 67. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 67–84; it hit 66. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 62–74; it hit 65. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 71–80; it hit 74. ICON led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 66–76; it hit 84. ICON led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 76–87; it hit 81. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 72–86; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 70–92; it hit 87. GEM led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 85–92; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 73–95; it hit 78. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F).
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 84–95; it hit 81. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 79–95; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 73–97; it hit 81. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); ICON ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 75–94; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 70–94; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 1.6°F); ICON ran 8°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 81–97; it hit 89. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 82–99; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 0.1°F).
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 84. GFS led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 79–93; it hit 85. GEM led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 80–83; it hit 85. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 70–86; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 78–92; it hit 91. AIFS led (off 1.8°F); ECMWF ran 8°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 14 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 85–96; it hit 98. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 82–96; it hit 87. ICON led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 10°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 89. AIFS led (off 0.8°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 79–88; it hit 85. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 80–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 80–90; it hit 88. GEM led (off 1.1°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 84–87; it hit 86. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 79–84; it hit 85. GFS led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 80–84; it hit 85. AIGFS led (off 1.4°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 83–89; it hit 87. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 78–90; it hit 90. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 83–87; it hit 81. GEM led (off 0.8°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 76–88; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 80–99; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 2.8°F); GEM ran 11°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 65–86; it hit 89. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 87. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 88–92; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 86–96; it hit 90. AIFS led (off 3.8°F); GEM ran 12°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 74–93; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 90. ICON led (off 1.1°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 76–91; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 8°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 85–97; it hit 92. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 84–97; it hit 86. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 73–96; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 76–92; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 76–87; it hit 82. AIFS led (off 1.3°F); GEM ran 9°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 86–91; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 83–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 80–84; it hit 87. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.

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