Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Sep 4?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 76° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 90° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.0°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-20 | — | 77° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 74° | 88° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 74–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 88° | 76° | 86° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 76° | 80° | — | 95° | — | — | 76–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 86° | 91° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 88° | 106° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–106° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 91° | 96° | — | 97° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 87° | 87° | 89° | 87° | 107° | — | — | 87–107° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 82° | 88° | 88° | 101° | — | — | 82–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 89° | 96° | 91° | 95° | 98° | — | 86–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 93° | 93° | 98° | 92° | 88° | 97° | 97° | 88–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 94° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 101° | 87° | 92° | 87–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 90° | 92° | 94° | 90° | 98° | 92° | 92° | 90–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 93° | 95° | 94° | 97° | 93° | 91° | 91–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 91° | 93° | 95° | 89° | 100° | 95° | 92° | 89–100° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 92° | 93° | 92° | 89° | 97° | 92° | 95° | 89–97° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.