Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Sep 7?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 76° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 77° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 90° | 79° | 84° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 87° | 90° | — | 98° | — | — | 82–98° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 84° | 89° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 97° | 96° | — | 93° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 81° | 76° | 92° | — | 86° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 87° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 86° | 84° | 88° | 79° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 81° | 81° | 84° | 81° | — | — | 81–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 80–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 80–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 81° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 80–82° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 81° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 82° | 81° | 81–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 81° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 81–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 81° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 81° | 81–85° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.