Was the forecast right for Washington on Wed Oct 14?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 66° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 64° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 64–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 73° | 66° | — | 73° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 54° | 60° | 83° | — | 73° | — | — | 54–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 57° | 53° | 68° | — | 86° | — | — | 53–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 60° | 66° | — | 75° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 53° | 82° | — | 68° | — | — | 53–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 79° | 67° | 80° | 69° | 70° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 78° | 78° | 74° | 64° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 74° | 82° | 65° | 82° | 65° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 83° | 81° | 67° | 83° | 79° | 76° | 72° | 67–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 87° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 69° | 82° | 75° | 69–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 88° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 84–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 87° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 88° | 86° | 88° | 89° | 88° | 84° | 84–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 90° | 89° | 87° | 84° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 84–90° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.