Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Oct 13?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 62° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 82° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 63° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 62° | 63° | 82° | — | 67° | — | — | 62–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 70° | 70° | — | 75° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 77° | 78° | — | 78° | — | — | 77–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 76° | 67° | 84° | — | 86° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 76° | 67° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 68° | 76° | 76° | 76° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 75° | 75° | 72° | 71° | 74° | — | — | 71–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 85° | 73° | 79° | 70° | 74° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 76° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 70° | 79° | 70–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 74° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 82° | 74–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 77° | 83° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 77–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 82° | 76° | 81° | 76° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 76–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 82° | 78° | 82° | 76° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 81° | 82° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 79–83° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.