Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Oct 3?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 62° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 67° against the DCA observations, with 0.25 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.8°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 76° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 62° | 75° | — | 73° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 69° | 75° | — | 86° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 70° | 82° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 63° | 77° | — | 85° | — | — | 63–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 74° | 74° | 76° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 80° | 90° | 83° | 84° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 64° | 84° | 74° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 64–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 80° | 65° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 69° | 70° | 77° | 71° | 68° | 69° | 68–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 71° | 72° | 87° | 72° | 70° | 79° | 70–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 72° | 69° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 73° | 69–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 68° | 68° | 73° | 69° | 71° | 75° | 68–75° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 69° | 70° | 73° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 69–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 71° | 70–72° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.