Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 3?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 79° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 91° against the DCA observations, with 1.25 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. GFS ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 73° | 69° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 79° | 87° | 83° | — | 100° | — | — | 79–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 87° | 73° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 76° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 87° | 87° | 94° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 92° | 96° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 93° | 102° | 90° | 101° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 87° | 90° | 92° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 88° | 101° | 92° | 104° | 93° | — | 88–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 96° | 107° | 99° | 104° | 100° | 96° | 96–107° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 96° | 101° | 99° | 100° | 101° | 97° | 96–101° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 93° | 96° | 93° | 102° | 102° | 98° | 98° | 93–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 89° | 96° | 94° | 97° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 89–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 100° | 96° | 98° | 92–100° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 100° | 95° | 97° | 89–100° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.