Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 3?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 26° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 33° against the DCA observations, with 31.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 23° | 20° | — | — | 30° | — | — | 20–30° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 26° | 30° | 28° | — | 38° | — | — | 26–38° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 31° | 23° | 29° | — | 30° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 33° | 24° | 29° | — | 33° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 31° | 30° | 34° | — | 21° | — | — | 21–34° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 33° | 36° | — | 30° | — | — | 30–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 34° | 39° | 32° | 38° | — | — | 32–39° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 30° | 32° | 33° | 35° | 34° | — | — | 30–35° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 32° | 31° | 38° | 33° | 40° | 34° | — | 31–40° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 37° | 36° | 42° | 37° | 40° | 38° | 36° | 36–42° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 37° | 36° | 38° | 37° | 38° | 38° | 36° | 36–38° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 34° | 35° | 34° | 39° | 39° | 37° | 37° | 34–39° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 32° | 36° | 34° | 36° | 37° | 35° | 37° | 32–37° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 33° | 36° | 33° | 33° | 38° | 36° | 36° | 33–38° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 32° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 38° | 35° | 36° | 32–38° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.