Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 3?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 25° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 33° against the DCA observations, with 31.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-19 | — | 28° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 26–28° |
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 25° | 26° | 33° | — | 29° | — | — | 25–33° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 28° | 24° | 32° | — | 30° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 32° | 28° | 28° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 34° | 32° | 31° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 30° | 33° | 34° | — | 31° | — | — | 30–34° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 29° | 38° | 33° | 37° | — | — | 29–38° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 29° | 36° | 37° | 34° | 25° | — | — | 25–37° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 30° | 31° | 36° | 35° | 32° | — | — | 30–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 35° | 34° | 38° | 36° | 39° | 37° | 34° | 34–39° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 33° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 37° | 39° | 36° | 33–39° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 35° | 36° | 39° | 38° | 40° | 38° | 36° | 35–40° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 32° | 36° | 36° | 36° | 38° | 37° | 36° | 32–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 33° | 36° | 34° | 36° | 38° | 35° | 36° | 33–38° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 32° | 36° | 37° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 32–37° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.