Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 3?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 78° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 91° against the DCA observations, with 1.25 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.8°. ECMWF ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-19 | — | 83° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 78° | 79° | 92° | — | 84° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 83° | 76° | 90° | — | 87° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 90° | 82° | 82° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 90° | 88° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 86° | 91° | 94° | — | 88° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 85° | 101° | 91° | 98° | — | — | 85–101° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 96° | 99° | 93° | 77° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 88° | 96° | 95° | 90° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 94° | 100° | 97° | 102° | 98° | 94° | 94–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 96° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 92–102° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 96° | 96° | 103° | 101° | 104° | 100° | 97° | 96–104° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 90–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 96° | 93° | 97° | 100° | 95° | 97° | 91–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 89° | 96° | 99° | 94° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 89–99° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.