Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Aug 16?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 83° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 81° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.55 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 94° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 87° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 83–87° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 80° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 83° | 80° | 82° | — | 83° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 80° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 80° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 85° | 84° | 80° | 83° | 87° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 79° | 75° | 89° | 84° | 88° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 78° | 85° | 89° | 85° | 102° | — | — | 78–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 80° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 93° | 99° | 90° | 80–99° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 82° | 86° | 85° | 84° | 100° | 96° | 87° | 82–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 82° | 89° | 82° | 84° | 98° | 94° | 100° | 82–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 80° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 79° | 79–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 77° | 79° | 80° | 83° | 90° | 79° | 94° | 77–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 76° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 83° | 76–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.