Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Sep 18?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 72° to 89°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 88° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 76° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 76–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 82° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 72° | 89° | — | 79° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 86° | 85° | 80° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 67° | 82° | — | 74° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 94° | 86° | 72° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 90° | 85° | 87° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 91° | 81° | 74° | 79° | 76° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 87° | 90° | 94° | 86° | 90° | — | 78–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 86° | 88° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 79° | 86° | 79–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 82° | 86° | 86° | 88° | 79° | 83° | 79–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 86° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 85° | 84–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 87° | 84° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 82° | 82–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 88° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 84–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.