Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Aug 27?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
8 days out, 5 models put Washington's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 80° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 88° against the DCA observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.1°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-19 | 80° | 82° | 87° | 90° | 82° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-20 | 78° | 82° | 79° | 87° | 73° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 77° | 80° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 91° | 84° | 77–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 84° | 83° | 83° | 85° | 90° | 89° | 86° | 83–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 85° | 89° | 89° | 79° | 88° | 88° | 79–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 86° | 85° | 78° | 92° | 86° | 89° | 84° | 78–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 87° | 86–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 91° | 86° | 89° | 93° | 87° | 89° | 86–93° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.