Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Oct 1?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 68° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 83° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.9°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 68° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 71° | 68° | 71° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 75° | 70° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 77° | 63° | 75° | — | 73° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 72° | 78° | 71° | — | 89° | — | — | 71–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 80° | 84° | 78° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 84° | 86° | 80° | 81° | 91° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 76° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 85° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 88° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 78° | 78–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 87° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 89° | 84° | 85° | 81–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 87° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 84° | 84–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 87° | 84° | 84–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 84–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.