Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Sep 11?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 81° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 82° against the DCA observations, with 0.68 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 88° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 83° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 81° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 88° | 70° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 93° | 81° | 90° | — | 82° | — | — | 81–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 75° | 102° | — | 89° | — | — | 75–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 93° | 87° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 87° | 82° | 95° | 82° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 76° | 81° | 82° | 75° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 81° | — | 79–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 82° | 82° | 83° | 75° | 84° | 79° | 81° | 75–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 82° | 82° | 84° | 78° | 86° | 79° | 84° | 78–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 85° | 76° | 83° | 76–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 76° | 82° | 76–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 84° | 83° | 83° | 81° | 85° | 80° | 84° | 80–85° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 81–85° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.