Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Sep 5?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 74° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. ICON ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-21 | — | 89° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 79° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 74° | 83° | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 79° | 79° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 94° | 79° | 99° | — | 82° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 93° | 86° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 95° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 81° | 88° | 89° | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 84° | 80° | 90° | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 81° | 85° | 88° | 76° | 88° | — | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 85° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 82–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 86° | 84–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 84° | 83° | 82° | 89° | 84° | 85° | 82–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 85° | 84° | 79° | 88° | 80° | 86° | 79–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 80° | 86° | 80–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 82° | 86° | 84° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 82–86° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.