Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Oct 23?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 59° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 62° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 70° | 59° | 76° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 67° | 72° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 70° | 62° | 67° | — | 64° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 62° | 67° | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 72° | 72° | 72° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 75° | 74° | 62° | 70° | 71° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 67° | 66° | 68° | 67° | — | — | 65–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 58° | 66° | 66° | 53° | 68° | — | — | 53–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 63° | 63° | 59° | 62° | 67° | 58° | 63° | 58–67° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 64° | 63° | 58° | 60° | 66° | 61° | 63° | 58–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 62° | 62° | 56° | 61° | 64° | 60° | 60° | 56–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 64° | 62° | 58° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 59° | 58–64° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 64° | 62° | 60° | 64° | 63° | 62° | 60° | 60–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 63° | 62° | 60° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 61° | 60–64° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.