Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Sep 22?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 62° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 65° against the DCA observations, with 0.81 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 81° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 68° | 62° | 72° | — | 74° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 66° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 69° | 65° | 64° | — | 66° | — | — | 64–69° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 72° | 70° | 84° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 83° | 67° | 79° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 70° | 92° | 76° | 79° | — | — | 70–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 67° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 70° | 81° | 68° | 72° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 68° | 68° | 75° | 66° | 73° | 85° | 74° | 66–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 67° | 66° | 74° | 65° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 65–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 65° | 70° | 65° | 65° | 67° | 74° | 65–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 64° | 70° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 71° | 64–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 66° | 64° | 69° | 70° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 64–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 66–68° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.