Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Aug 10?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 86° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 90° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.34 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 3.8°. GEM ran 12° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 86° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 95° | 94° | 96° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 92° | 97° | — | 96° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 90° | 89° | 87° | — | 89° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 92° | 91° | 106° | — | 95° | — | — | 91–106° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 94° | 92° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 93° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 94° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 94° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 99° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 94° | 94° | 93° | 92° | 102° | — | — | 92–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 94° | 94° | 95° | 94° | 100° | 98° | 98° | 94–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 94° | 95° | 94° | 93° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 93–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 94° | 94° | 95° | 93° | 96° | 96° | 92° | 92–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 94° | 94° | 97° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 94–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 93° | 94° | 97° | 96° | 95° | 97° | 98° | 93–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 101° | 97° | 95° | 97° | 93–101° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.