Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Oct 19?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Oct 19 high anywhere from 56° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 69° against the DCA observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-04 | — | 63° | — | — | 63° | — | — | 63–63° |
| 14d · 2026-10-05 | 56° | 69° | 80° | — | 60° | — | — | 56–80° |
| 13d · 2026-10-06 | 54° | 66° | 63° | — | 63° | — | — | 54–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-07 | 73° | 63° | 56° | — | 71° | — | — | 56–73° |
| 11d · 2026-10-08 | 54° | 66° | 58° | — | 65° | — | — | 54–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-09 | 65° | 61° | 65° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–65° |
| 9d · 2026-10-10 | 68° | 54° | 66° | 59° | 54° | — | — | 54–68° |
| 8d · 2026-10-11 | 67° | 62° | 68° | 66° | 66° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-12 | — | 67° | 68° | 64° | 66° | — | — | 64–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 69° | 65° | 65° | 70° | 68° | 66° | 64–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 68° | 58° | 66° | 67° | 64° | 56° | 56–68° |
| 4d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 64° | 63° | 63° | 64° | 65° | 64° | 63–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 62° | 65° | 59° | 65° | 66° | 64° | 59–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-17 | 66° | 64° | 66° | 62° | 65° | 66° | 67° | 62–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 65° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 66° | 66° | 65–68° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.