Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Sep 19?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 72° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 82° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 73° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 72° | 72° | 86° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 72° | 75° | 80° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 79° | 90° | 65° | — | 70° | — | — | 65–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 71° | 87° | 81° | — | 81° | — | — | 71–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 73° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 83° | 76° | 72° | 75° | 92° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 87° | 95° | 89° | 82° | — | — | 76–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 76° | 68° | 80° | 78° | 80° | 88° | — | 68–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 78° | 76° | 83° | 74° | 92° | 79° | 84° | 74–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 77° | 77° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 79° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 78–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 78° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 76–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 77° | 79° | 83° | 79° | 77° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 79° | 79° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 79–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.