Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Sep 1?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
12 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 75° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 98° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-20 | 79° | 76° | 75° | — | 98° | — | — | 75–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 87° | 90° | 75° | — | 101° | — | — | 75–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 80° | 87° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 97° | 90° | 92° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 95° | 85° | 95° | 97° | 93° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 95° | 90° | 100° | 96° | 86° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 97° | 96° | 101° | 97° | 91° | 96° | — | 91–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 94° | 92° | 92–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 92° | 94° | 96° | 99° | 93° | 96° | 86° | 86–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 95° | 93° | 102° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 93–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 95° | 93° | 101° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 94° | 93–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 94° | 93° | 98° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 94° | 93–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 93° | 93° | 95° | 94° | 97° | 93° | 95° | 93–97° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.