Was the forecast right for Washington on Wed Sep 16?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 78° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 83° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 74° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 74–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 83° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 78° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 78° | 83° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 88° | 81° | — | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 79° | 92° | 83° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 88° | 83° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 78° | 98° | 75° | 89° | — | — | 75–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 82° | 90° | 90° | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 84° | 89° | 83° | 82° | 94° | 87° | — | 82–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 84° | 81° | 89° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 81–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 84° | 81° | 83° | 87° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 81–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 81° | 83° | 83° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 81–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 81° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 81–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 84° | 83° | 87° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 83–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 82° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 84° | 82–88° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.