Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Aug 15?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 76° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 89° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 73° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 76° | 88° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 87° | 82° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 84° | 86° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 75° | 84° | — | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 90° | 80° | 81° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 82° | 79° | 86° | 86° | 84° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 91° | 83° | 79° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 86° | 80° | 86° | 82° | 84° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 82° | 91° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 82–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 83° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 81–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 87° | 87° | 81° | 83° | 88° | 91° | 85° | 81–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 86° | 87° | 75° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 75–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 88° | 85° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 85–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 87° | 87° | 88° | 93° | 88° | 89° | 89° | 87–93° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.