Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Sep 28?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 76° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 71° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 65° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 65–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 76° | 85° | — | 78° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 75° | 78° | — | 87° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 66° | 70° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 65° | 78° | 73° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 64° | 69° | 77° | — | 75° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 78° | 77° | 74° | 72° | 60° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 72° | 77° | 66° | 72° | 78° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 72° | 78° | 67° | 74° | 80° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 77° | 71° | 74° | 78° | 70° | — | 70–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 76° | 71° | 77° | 73° | 69° | 68° | 68–77° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 75° | 72° | 72° | 66° | 70° | 72° | 66–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 69° | 71° | 72° | 71° | 69° | 73° | 69–73° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 71° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 69° | 69° | 74° | 68–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 70° | 69° | 71° | 75° | 72° | 70° | 73° | 69–75° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.