Was the forecast right for Washington on Wed Sep 23?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 67° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 66° against the DCA observations, with 0.4 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 65° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 67° | 69° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 67° | 71° | 64° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 72° | 71° | 82° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 78° | 75° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 76° | 76° | 76° | — | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 63° | 64° | 70° | 74° | 68° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 70° | 76° | 72° | 71° | 70° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 67° | 69° | 70° | 72° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 61° | 57° | 72° | 61° | 65° | 64° | 68° | 57–72° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 62° | 58° | 65° | 60° | 63° | 71° | 67° | 58–71° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 61° | 60° | 60° | 60° | 61° | 68° | 60–68° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 62° | 67° | 60° | 64° | 62° | 70° | 60–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 60° | 67° | 64° | 67° | 63° | 70° | 60–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 63° | 63° | 67° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 69° | 63–69° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.